Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025?

Question

There are about 4,000 political appointees, a majority of which are replaced by a new president, normally.

Schedule Policy/Career (formerly named Schedule F) is a planned executive order by the Trump team to replace about 50,000 state employees to seize control over various parts of the government

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_F_appointment

The 10,000 replacements must be unique positions.

This will resolve based on credible media reports.

I will not bet in this market in case resolution is controversial

Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:

All appointments count regardless of the legal method used.

A name change (e.g., from Schedule F to Schedule Policy/Career) does not affect the resolution criteria.

Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date extended until Q1 2026 to allow for data from FedScope and/or the Plum book to become available.

Positions that will be counted:

Policy/Career appointments (formerly Schedule F)

Schedule G appointments

Traditional Schedule C appointments (the usual ~4,000 political appointees)

Both Policy/Career and Schedule G are non-career positions without civil service protections, managed by the White House Office of Presidential Personnel (PPO).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (27 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).