If Trump/sitting President refuses Supreme Court order, what happens next?

Question

If this question: @/ajtalas/will-a-sitting-us-president-refuse resolves YES during Trump's second term, what happens within 1 year of the court order?

If Trump is replaced through legal means by Vance before, and Vance ignores court orders, this question still applies.

I will defer to other markets for resolution if there's a reasonable one.

I will not bet in this market.

See also:

@/Siebe/if-republicans-lose-the-2028-presid

@/Siebe/will-the-courts-strike-down-trumps

@/PeterF/if-trump-wins-will-multiple-protest

@/Flekkie/will-trump-declare-martial-law-in-t

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, >100K protest in DC, followed by Protest is met with lethal violence (1+ death) and Impeachment by House (>50%) but not Senate (>66%) are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Mar 3, 2026).