In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Question

Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.

Main market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 65% chance (347 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).