If real money trading never happens and it seems like the legality was a factor, resolves no. If it doesn't happen for a totally unrelated reason, resolves n/a. In my view, the N/A condition is relatively unlikely, because the legality would at least be at least a minor factor in their decision.

If users can bet on Manifold Markets and withdraw into real money, even if it's in the form of somewhat fuzzy "prizes" at EOY 24, resolves yes. 

Regarding gift cards, it depends on the quantity/types of gift cards available- if I can withdraw a virtually limitless amount of Amazon money, that's basically just US dollars and it's a Yes. If I can only withdraw in very limited quantities/types of gift cards, it's a no.

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393