If Republicans win the 2024 U.S. presidency, will an AI kill 10% of the human population before 2028?

Question

Doesn't count if the AI was just following human directions. E.g. if humans escalate to a nuclear war, and the launch process happens to involve an AI, that's not the spirit of the question.  It should be an accident, or an "unaligned" AI.

If instead the Democrat wins the POTUS 2024 election, then we resolve this N/A to refund the trades.  We would then look to the sibling question:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/if-democrats-wins-the-2024-us-presi)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (19 traders, as of Feb 25, 2026).