By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Question

Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.

Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (591 traders, as of Mar 21, 2026).