[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will there be another extremely severe cyclonic storm in the North Indian Ocean by the end of 2023?

Question

Background

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an extremely severe cyclonic storm is defined as a tropical cyclone that has 3-minute mean maximum sustained wind speeds between 90–119 knots (165–220 km/h; 105–135 mph). It is roughly equivalent to a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane to a low-end Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

[image]As of September 5, 2023, there were two extremely severe cyclonic storms that were active in the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basin during 2023. They were Mocha and Biparjoy, active in May and June respectively.

A North Indian Ocean cyclone season typically lasts from April to December, peaking around May to November. The season has a double peak, one around May and one around October. This is because the monsoon low and upper tropospheric high during monsoon season tends to tear apart cyclones due to high wind shear despite other favourable conditions.

Notably, 2023 has been a fairly energetic season in the North Indian Ocean so far, with an ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) of 41.5, which puts it at spot number 5 on record, even though the season has not formally concluded.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if a cyclone in the North Indian Ocean strengthens into an extremely severe cyclonic storm before the end of 2023. The condition will also be fulfilled if the cyclone rapidly intensifies into a super cyclonic storm, the category above extremely severe cyclonic storms.

Resolves NO if no such cyclone forms in the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone basin before the end of 2023.

In the rare case in which a tropical cyclone crosses basin into the North Indian Ocean basin, such as Typhoon Hope, the condition for YES will only be satisfied if the IMD duly characterises the cyclone as an extremely severe cyclonic storm in its announcements.

Will resolve based on IMD data, supplemented with JTWC data if necessary.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 22, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.