[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Invest 93L strengthen into a tropical storm?

Question

Background

A tropical disturbance, 93L, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico per the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

[image][image][image]A small low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico 
continues to produce an area of disorganized cloudiness and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
favorable for some additional development while the system moves 
slowly northward during the next day or so.  The low is forecast to 
merge with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by 
Wednesday morning.  Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the 
system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of 
the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.  Additional information 
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Will 93L further develop into a tropical storm as it is forecast to sweep northward?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if 93L reaches tropical storm strength, before dissipation or merger with non-tropical fronts, according to the NHC.

Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before dissipation or merger with non-tropical fronts.

Will resolve and adjudicate based on NHC advisories.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Related Market

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SarkanyVar/m200-subsidy-will-a-tropical-cyclon)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 11, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.