[Ṁ100 subsidy] Will Hurricane Otis make landfall in Mexico as a hurricane or stronger?

Question

Background

Tropical Storm Otis is a tropical cyclone that had formed in the Eastern Pacific south of Oaxaca, Mexico. It is forecast to become a hurricane shortly according to NHC advisories.

There has been some disagreement between models regarding the future path of Otis, with some forecasting a landfall, and the rest pointing towards a brush-by parallel to the coast. Strength forecast also varies somewhat as well between tropical storm and hurricane level winds.

[image][image]Will Otis make landfall in Mexico as a hurricane or stronger therefore, like how NHC has predicted?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Otis is deemed to have landed in any part of mainland Mexico by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of Mexico, excluding all outlying islands, as a hurricane (Huracán categoría 1) or stronger. SMN's tropical storm warning page can be found here.

Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the SMN of Mexico before the dissipation, degeneration below tropical storm strength, or extratropical transition of Otis.

Will resolve based on SMN data, with supplemented data from NHC if necessary, such as if SMN has not provided an advisory on their page.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ100 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 25, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.