[Ṁ100 subsidy] [Short Fuse] Will Hurricane Otis become a Category 5 hurricane?

Question

Background

Hurricane Otis is a powerful major hurricane moving towards the southern coast of Mexico. Originally expected to only reach Category 1 strength, it rapidly intensified while nearing the coast, reaching Category 4 strength and prompting NHC (National Hurricane Center) to issue a special advisory between the scheduled ones.

[image]Will Otis become a destructive Category 5 hurricane as forecast by the NHC?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Otis reaches Category 5 peak strength at any time point of its tropical lifespan.

Resolves NO if the conditions for YES are not satisfied before the dissipation, extratropical transition, or merger with non-tropical fronts.

Will resolve based on advisories from NHC and SMN (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) of Mexico. If the two agencies give divergent peak strengths for Otis, a blend of their peak sustained wind speeds will be used to convert into an equivalent Saffir-Simpson category.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ100 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 25, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.