Will GPT-5 be publicly released before Ilya Sutskever leaves OpenAI?

Question

This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as "GPT-5" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Ilya Sutskever's employment at OpenAI ends.

A "major successor" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.

"Publicly available" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.

Examples:

GPT-5: YES

Chat 5: YES

GPT-4.5: NO

GPT-4.5-Turbo: NO

Roboto: YES (if major release); NO (if minor update or single domain).

Sutskever's departure is effective from the date he ceases employment at OpenAI, regardless of any ongoing advisory or board roles. Announced future departures are not considered until the specified date.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 15, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.