Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Question

Background: Silicon Valley elites revealed as buyers of $800m of land to build utopian city

This market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question—whether a new Bay Area city becomes real. Cities which exist at the time of the creation of this question will not count. Financing does not necessarily need to come exclusively (or even majority) from Silicon Valley moguls.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (120 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).