This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.  

This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.  

I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.  

Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.  

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world

In the latest episode of the 80,000 Hours podcast, Kevin Esvelt talks about the New World screwworm. He claims that there is a potential for a massiv…