When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?

Question

This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.

This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.

I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.

Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2050 or later, followed by 2038-2040 and 2032-2034 are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Oct 13, 2026).