Will we discover alien life before 2029?

Question

Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2029.

This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or distant galaxies.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7

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@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a (this question)

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@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.

If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question.

The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.

Image credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:James_Webb_Space_Telescope_2009_top.jpg

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (66 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).