How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?

Question

Background

GiveWell is a nonprofit that conducts in-depth research to determine the most effective charitable giving opportunities. In recent years, their fundraising has shown consistent growth, with approximately $253 million raised from donors excluding Open Philanthropy in 2022, $255 million in 2023, and $308 million in 2024.

In April 2023 they made the following forecast, albeit with wide confidence intervals:

[image][image]Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the total amount of money raised by GiveWell during the 2025 fiscal year (February 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026), excluding all funds from Open Philanthropy. The amount will be determined using GiveWell's official financial reports or public announcements.

Resolution will be based on:

Direct donations to GiveWell, whether or not they are re-granted to non-profits or not. For example, in 2023, this would resolve to $255 million, because that was the amount listed under 'Funds Raised' by GiveWell, though only $216 million were 'Funds Directed'

The following will be excluded:

Any funds from Open Philanthropy

Considerations

GiveWell's fundraising can be influenced by major world events, economic conditions, and shifts in donor behavior

Year-end giving typically accounts for a significant portion of annual donations

Changes in GiveWell's charity recommendations or research findings could impact donor behavior

The resolution amount may take several months into 2026 to be officially reported - GiveWell suggest at least 6 months, though their 2024 numbers were published on their blog in August 2025. So the deadline will be extended as necessary.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 450-500m, followed by 500-550m and 350-400m are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).