GiveWell is a nonprofit that conducts in-depth research to determine the most effective charitable giving opportunities. In recent years, their fundraising has shown consistent growth, with approximately $253 million raised from donors excluding Open Philanthropy in 2022, $255 million in 2023, and $308 million in 2024.

In April 2023 they made the following forecast, albeit with wide confidence intervals:

This market will resolve based on the total amount of money raised by GiveWell during the 2025 fiscal year (February 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026), excluding all funds from Open Philanthropy. The amount will be determined using GiveWell's official financial reports or public announcements.