If the French government faces a new no-confidence vote before July 2025, will it succeed?

Question

Resolves Yes if the National Assembly submits a formal no-confidence motion, debates it, and the vote passes. Resolve No if the vote fails to pass. Resolves N/A if there are zero new no-confidence votes before July, 2025.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/PuckMinder/will-the-french-government-face-a-n?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 54% chance (5 traders, as of May 2, 2026).