In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?

Question

Each answer resolves to the %age share of the seats in the Scottish Parliament that that party gets. For example if the Green Party wins 8 of the 129 seats their %age share is 8/129 = 6.2% of the total seats in the parliament.

Note that the election is due on 7 May 2026, but may happen before.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Scottish National Party, followed by Reform and Labour are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Apr 7, 2026).