Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

Question

Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (92 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).