If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Question

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if, in any single incident before the end of 2026, more than 2 protestors or rioters die in public clashes with the authorities in the District of Columbia. Otherwise resolves No at the end of 2026.

Authorities include police, national guard, or military, or any uniformed group that present themselves as responsible for maintaining law and order (or controlling protests/riots, etc), and are not contradicted in this by the administration.

Must be reported in at least 2 major media outlets: CNN, Fox, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, The Guardian, the AP, or similar.

This is intended to cover deaths during protests, riots, arrests, or other public confrontations, or from injuries sustained during those confrontations; not subsequent deaths while in custody. I'll use my judgment about what constitutes a single incident -- a weekend of related protests is one incident; a summer of protests is not.  I will not trade in this market.

Compare:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterFavaloro/if-biden-wins-will-multiple-protest)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (15 traders, as of Jan 25, 2026).