If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A. 

If Biden does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No. 

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT

If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.) 

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics