Inherent Unpredictability: I believe that the further we try to predict into the future, the more unpredictable and uncertain outcomes become, making it pure speculation rather than useful information.

Lack of Immediate Utility: For me, predictions that are set a decade or more into the future lack immediate actionable insights. They may be interesting, but they don't offer tangible benefits or guidance for present-day decisions.

Potential for Misleading Information: Long-term prediction markets might attract more speculative and less-informed participants. There's a risk that these markets could perpetuate misconceptions or biases about the future.

Changing Variables Over Time: Over a span of a decade or more, countless unforeseen events, technological advancements, and policy changes can occur. These can drastically alter the trajectory of a prediction.