If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?

Question

If this market resolves yes before the 2026 midterms,

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-us-put-boots-on-the-ground?r=UGFwZXJCb3k

and this market resolves Yes to one of the options involving D Senate,

https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t?r=UGFwZXJCb3k

this market will resolve Yes. N/A if the first market resolves No (or isn’t resolved prior to the midterms)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (14 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).