Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Question

Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST). The current ceasefire is already in a status I would describe as "probably over," but I would not count a stabilization of the current two-week ceasefire as a second ceasefire. If on April 23nd or later, media consensus (CNN, BBC, WaPo, etc.) is that the war is back on, any further mutually confirmed and initiated ceasefire this year will then resolve the market Yes. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. The spirit of this market pertains to the current cessation, a potential resumption, and then a new cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran.

Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade does not by itself break the ceasefire. Resolution will follow media consensus — if outlets commonly refer to a subsequent cessation as "a new ceasefire" or "the second ceasefire this year," that will count for Yes resolution.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (56 traders, as of May 23, 2026).