Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024?

Question

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-israel-invade-rafah-in-may-202)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Apr 30, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.