If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin

“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.

He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”

I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:

The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.