There has been plenty of talk about splits within the Russian elites. While the consensus is that it's very unlikely they will turn against Putin anytime soon, in-fighting might be increasing. In this context, the market asks about the probability that top-profile Russians will be "get rid of", either through arrests or physical elimination, by their rivals.

Some examples of events leading to a positive resolution: the violent death of Prigozhin without a meaningful Ukrainian trail; the arrest of defense minister Shoigu on charges of corruption.

An example of an unsifficient event: the killing of 

. She did not meet the "top-profile" criteria, and there is a link to a Ukrainian operation that doesn't seem to be spurious.