Will Clarence Thomas rule with the Majority on Jack Smith's Supreme Court petition to see if Donald Trump has immunity?

Question

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/politics/special-counsel-trump-jack-smith/index.html

Special counsel goes directly to Supreme Court to resolve whether Trump has immunity from prosecution. Supreme Court has agreed to weigh in on this argument.

The question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority of the ruling or not.

RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion is in the majority column.

RESOLVE NO -- If he is in the minority opinion.

Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes.

Recusal will result in an N/A

Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority -- either for Trump or against Trump.

Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.

To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 2, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.