Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars before 2030?

Question

The question will resolve to YES if a strong evidence is found for life to have existed on Mars at any point in its history. The evidence should be direct, comparable to our evidence for life on Earth 3.4 Gy ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms).

Lifeforms introduced by humans intentionally or otherwise don't count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (31 traders, as of Jan 4, 2026).