Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Question

For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.

If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (46 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).