California One Time Billionaire Tax 2026 prop bets

Question

Resolves based on official statements from the govt of California, or major media reporting, that a ballot measure for a one time billionaire tax will appear on the ballot in 2026.

Must be a one time tax, and target individuals, families, households or family units with net worth or assets over 1b.

Endorses is a public endorsement.  Rumours of what he votes for or says he wants behind closed doors is not enough for resolution. Resolves to his first endorsement of a side. If he endorsed yes or no, would immediately resolve. If he says he’s undecided or not commenting on it, will wait until when he/if he announces a decision.

I reserve right to n/a or adjust bad answers if you add them

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Appears on ballot in California in 2026, followed by Does not appear on ballot due to lawsuit  and Appears on ballot in Ca2026 and Gavin Newsom endorses voting yes on it are most likely. See the market for live updates (15 traders, as of Apr 27, 2026).