If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

Question

Inspired by this tweet. How many current Labour MPs (current = holds the labour whip as-at market creation on 3rd June 2025) will instead be listed as Green on Parliament's Find MPs page at market close?

Resolves "Polanski does not become Green Party leader" if Polanski does not win the 2025 leadership election.

Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Lloyd Russell-Moyle (LRM) would not count toward the resolution, as he ceased to be an MP for Labour before the election, prior to market creation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 0 defections, followed by 1 defection and 2-5 defections are most likely. See the market for live updates (30 traders, as of May 25, 2026).