By what date will Nintendo release a major Switch 2 hardware revision?

Question

Nintendo has often released revised versions of their consoles during the console's life. The GBA SP followed the GBA, the DS Lite followed the DS, and the Switch Lite followed the Switch. This market will resolve YES if a hardware revision of the Switch 2 is released before the date named in the option, otherwise it will resolve NO.

To clarify what "major hardware revision" means, here are the broad criteria I will be using to smell-test any new product release:

Does it play Switch 2 games? If so, points to YES

Does Nintendo undertake a traditional marketing campaign for this product specifically? If so, points to YES

Is it clearly marketed as a direct successor to the Switch 2, e.g. a Switch 3? If so, points to NO.

Are all games playable on the new hardware also playable on the original Switch 2? If so, points to YES.

Basically I'm looking for a Switch 2 Lite or a Switch 2 OLED or similar. A very minor hardware change which is not marketed would not count (e.g. the revised Switch 1 with the better battery).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, before 2028-10-01 / 1st October 2028, followed by before 2028-07-01 / 1st July 2028 and before 2028-04-01 / 1st April 2028 are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Jul 1, 2026).