Will a nuclear disaster occur that scores a 5, 6, or 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale by EOY 2030?

Question

This question will resolve YES if a nuclear disaster occurs by end of year 2030 that scores a five, six, or seven on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If a disaster occurs near the resolution date that could plausibly resolve YES, I will extend trading until a INES score is given.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Noah1/will-a-nuclear-disaster-occur-that-1142144df07b)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (7 traders, as of Feb 14, 2024).