Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Question

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/how-to-legalize-prediction-markets

Will resolve N/A if prediction markets don't become mostly legal in the US by 2030.

Jan 31, 1:49am: Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, is it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind? → Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (12 traders, as of Feb 6, 2025).