If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028

Question

Conditional market. If Kenya does not lead a military intervention by 2026 this will resolve N/A

Sister market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/NivlacM/if-the-us-leads-a-military-interven)Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for this market, the distinction between a 'military intervention' by Kenya and 'sending policemen' is not meaningful. The current Kenyan intervention (e.g., related to sending policemen) will count as a 'military intervention'.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (11 traders, as of Aug 3, 2026).