At time of asking this question there were 3 banks* which have been seized in the US; all small-ish. 

If a larger banking contagion becomes evident in 2023 with two or more big failures or five or more (more) regional failures or some equivalent combination thereof (1 and 3, say) then this question will resolve "no". If January 1st 2024 comes around without a cascade of failures then "yes".

I'll be refraining from betting in here, since this is a slightly fuzzy resolution.

Edit: Current count since the first three: (4 Nov 2023)

1 Major bailout/acquisition (Credit Suisse)

1 Local failure (Heartland Tri-State, $140M)

1 Local failure (Citizens Bank of Sac City, $65M assets)

If a major failure is 3 points and a regional failure is 1 point, for combined purposes 6 points will trigger "no" resolution.

We're currently at 4 1/2 points out of those 6 (1 1/2 pts from the CS bailout, 3 pts from the First Republic seizure, 0 pts from local banks incl Heartland and Iowa)

International banks with significant US presence, like CS, UBS, Deutschbank, etc., count.

IMF bailouts of central banks count as well

"local" being something different from "regional" and the lower end of regional being set at $10B assets is within the intent of this market, and the wording in the description. In case there's a contagion wave of smaller banks I'll add together the estimated assets of all banks below $10B, and if the sum hits $10B by the end of the year that'll count as another regional faillure. See "current count" above.

Bonini's Paradox lives. I haven't bet in this market as mentioned above. When edge cases come up they will continue to be adjudicated in accordance with 1) the larger intent of the market, as represented by the original question, and 2) words chosen in the description, in that order. Fortunately, in this case, both are in alignment. The intent is to resolve on a systemic contagion becoming evident in 2023, and a 2-branch local bank going under doesn't have much to do with that, and shouldn't. 

I missed that heartland was that small, originally. Lumping it into the "local" resolution category, and bringing the current points down from 5 1/2 to 4 1/2. Sorry for the confusion, I think this is the right answer.

Please continue to refrain from attempts to read the tea-leaves and find some definitional edge that means I have to resolve the market some counter-intuitive way. Save your time. Thank you all for the quality of the discussion in here so far.