Making a different market with a better wellbeing measure

'better':7 'differ':3 'make':1 'market':4 'measur':9 'wellb':8

Making a market on which of these things I will actually do

'actual':11 'make':1 'market':3 'thing':8

Meeting with friends at least once a week

Playing video games for an average of <2 hours per day

'2':8 'averag':6 'day':11 'game':3 'hour':9 'per':10 'play':1 'video':2

Playing video games for an average of >2 hours per day

'2':4 '30':1 'minut':2 'per':6 'time':5 'walk':3 'week':7

'art':2 'compon':6 'contact':5 'martial':1

'alcohol':2 'consumpt':4 'drug':3 'reduc':1

organise a meetup group or club with a regular meeting cadence

'cadenc':11 'club':6 'group':4 'meet':10 'meetup':3 'organis':1 'regular':9

Notice, identify, and strive to fully feel emotions (including negative). Use them as indicators for where you direct your behavior. 

'behavior':20 'direct':18 'emot':8 'feel':7 'fulli':6 'identifi':2 'includ':9 'indic':14 'negat':10 'notic':1 'strive':4 'use':11

Have a “screens off” time at night, go to bed & wake up at a consistent(-ish) time, and get blue light exposure (by going outdoors) within 45 min of waking. 

'45':27 'bed':10 'blue':20 'consist':15 'exposur':22 'get':19 'go':8,24 'ish':16 'light':21 'min':28 'night':7 'outdoor':25 'screen':3 'time':5,17 'wake':11,30 'within':26

'axe':4 'axe-throw':3 'club':6 'join':1 'throw':5

'10':6 'cold':3 'day':7 'shower':4 'take':1

, and also an attempt to figure out how well life-advice markets can work. Can I make my life a well-functioning futarchy? Let's find out!

I've been measuring my moods for the past couple of months using Beeminder.

 Each datapoint records my mood as follows:

(Note that my mood is recorded as a comment, not the data value - I don't need more incentive to feel better! The Beeminder aspect is just to make sure I record it semi-regularly. My phone prompts me to enter my mood every few hours, too.)

This allows me to see what my average mood is over any time period (albeit with a relatively low resolution).

So far, the average has stayed consistently between 0 and 1 (tending to hover between 0.1 and 0.3), meaning that it can map well onto a binary market.

Each answer will resolve to either my average mood over January (if I do it), or N/A (if I don't). If my mood averages to a value between 0 and 1, I'll convert it to a percentage; below 0 or above 1 count as NO and YES respectively.

(The answer labelled BASELINE will just resolve to my mood.)

In theory, activities that will improve my mood should be priced higher. In practice, let's see!

Obviously good predictions on this market will require a lot of information, so feel free to ask questions. Consider yourselves my personal crowdsourced life coach!

I'll award at least Ṁ100 for every answer I find useful and Ṁ10 for every comment I find useful.

I might make another market about what I'm actually likely to do, but I'll see if I think it's necessary first.