Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025

Question

Set criteria:

Move boxes better

Can build houses better

Can hold manufacturing positions

Can load a dishwasher in an unfamiliar kitchen faster

Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed the same):

[image][image]Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20

Mar 28, 11:24pm: Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks by the end of 2025 → Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (28 traders, as of Feb 3, 2026).