Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

Question

The Daily Mail interviews Andrew Steele, the author of Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old. Steele makes a couple of key predictions in the interview:

"I'd be shocked if in five years we don't have some senolytics in the clinic. It probably won't be for aging at first. It'll be for a specific disease - and maybe in 10 years, we'll use it for aging. These things are very, very near term."

This market is conerned with the first of those predictions: Clinical use of senolytics in humans for any purpose by 2028 (within 5 years of 2023). Senolytics are simply drugs whose mechanism of action is the destruction of senescent cells.

Resolves YES if credible news articles or medical journals describe the successful clinical use of a new senolytic drug outside of trials before the end date. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (11 traders, as of Dec 18, 2024).