Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.

If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "Trump remains in office after his term is up" resolves YES and "Trump leaves office when his term ends" resolves NO.

If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's 

 clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.

If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement. 