Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Question

Loyal, a company developing treatments for longevity in dogs, recently announced that they have "completed the technical effectiveness portion of their conditional approval for [their first drug candidate]".

Will they successfully establish efficacy (according to the FDA)? Resolves NO if they fail for any reason, including, for example, running out of money before they complete their studies.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (24 traders, as of May 15, 2026).