Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Question

[tweet]Not sure how to define the criteria on this since it consists of many different components. Someone have any good suggestions? For now I've got this:

If PPE or HALO is never launched, the date of that decision counts. If PPE and HALO are both launched, the date of the decision to never send humans there anymore counts.

If Gateway is launched into any orbit around the moon (not just NRHO), it still counts as Gateway

If Gateway is launched but not in orbit around the moon, it counts as cancelled/abandoned

Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Repurposing PPE to fly to Mars and HALO for a moon base (rather than using them for Gateway) counts as Gateway being cancelled/abandoned for resolution purposes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2029, followed by 2028 and 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Apr 2, 2026).