How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

Question

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst. If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.

Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 6 weeks+ (June 2nd, 1pm), followed by 6.5 weeks+ (June 6th, 1am) and 7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm) are most likely. See the market for live updates (88 traders, as of Jun 1, 2026).