How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

Question

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst. If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours.

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST.

Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm), followed by 3.5 weeks+ (May 16th, 1am) and 4 weeks+ (May 19th, 1pm) are most likely. See the market for live updates (75 traders, as of May 9, 2026).