This market predicts whether ChatGPT using the most powerful available GPT-4 model, assisted by Mira, will beat a selected human opponent in a game of chess. The game will be played on Lichess as a correspondence game, with ChatGPT taking the white pieces to provide a slight advantage.

The selected human opponent is someone who knows the rules of chess but doesn't play frequently and will not be allowed the use of a chess engine during the game. They have stated "I will not practice, but I will try my hardest to win".

Mira will act as a human assistant for ChatGPT, writing combinations of 6 types of prompts for ChatGPT:

A test game has been completed against Bing using only turns of PGN-formatted moves, so these should be sufficient. If additional prompts are needed, Mira will exercise subjective judgment. Mira and ChatGPT will not be allowed to access any chess engine during the game. Mira will provide a transcript of prompts used.

If there is dispute about whether a prompt was unfair(such as by leaking preference for certain moves to ChatGPT), the human opponent will be allowed to review the transcript, the discussion, and judge whether ChatGPT was given unfair advantage.

There is a 1 week time limit on completion of the game after the market closes. Otherwise, no strict time limit for either side on individual moves. If the opponent intentionally delays the game to run out the 1 week time limit, the market would resolve NA but Mira would be disappointed in them. If ChatGPT continues to give illegal moves to delay the game out to 1 week, the market resolves NO because an illegal move is an immediate loss in chess tournaments.

To avoid conflict of interest, Mira will not bet more than a token amount(M$10) in this market.