Outcomes of Trump's Strait of Hormuz ultimatum

Question

[image]Update 2026-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers that did not specify a deadline, the default resolution timeframe is market close (March 29), unless a common-sense reading of the answer clearly implies a longer timeframe is needed.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Strait is open for non aggressive states, followed by Nothing happens - strait stays closed, no power plant attacks and US hits an Iranian power plant by April are most likely. See the market for live updates (445 traders, as of Mar 28, 2026).