TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Question

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

Movement toward becoming law is no longer a potential resolution since the ban has been signed into law.

Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will presumably not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - If Trump uses executive power to keep TikTok operational, the market will resolve to 'none of these happen.' (AI summary of creator comment)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company, followed by None of these will happen by EOY 2028 and TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days are most likely. See the market for live updates (226 traders, as of May 2, 2026).