Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Question

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.

Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.

Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (991 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).