Ⓜ️ means "Admin / Member of the core team"

These 20 outstanding individuals all have record-breaking Daily prediction streaks. Almost* every day they open Manifold to make their valuable predictions, and often post insightful comments. Their dedication is making this website better and more entertaining for the rest of us.

Who will break their Daily prediction streak first out of these 20 individuals?

Every two days at 07:10 UTC I will run a script**, that determines the streak count of all 20 individuals. This market will close as soon as any of the streak counts falls below 10. In case of a draw (two or more people break their streak at the same day) a separate script will be run to determine for which user the stretch of time between their latest bet and the moment their streak was broken is the longest. In every case exactly one 'winner' will be chosen with a weight of 100%.

 to bet on themselves, both for profit and for a drammatic effect before leaving Manifold.

User id's will be stored instead of usernames in the resolution script, to prevent disputes in case of someone changing their username. I will post any changes in the comments section.

If "Daily prediction streak" feature is discontinued or fundamentally reformed, or the streak value becomes incomputable by Manifold Users, then this market resolves to N/A. If more than 10 people break their streak at the same day due to a bug or for any other reason, then this market resolves to N/A.

If I become inactive on Manifold for more than 7 days and there's proof that one of the 20 users broke their streak, you are free to ask admins for help to resolve this market instead of me.

 With the exception of skipped days, forgiven by "streak forgiveness".

 I am not obligated to disclose the source code of the aforementioned scripts, and in case of a dispute, I will contact the admins to get official information on the user streak counts. If proof will be uncovered that the resolution is wrong, I will re-resolve this market.