This market will resolve yes if, on Jan 1, 2028, Americans are able to legally trade online on elections.

Further details, in case the answer falls in a "gray area":

The market will resolve "yes" if election betting is de facto legal -- meaning that Americans are welcomed on an online exchange with operations in the United States.

For example, if election betting is available for new customers on 

, or anything similar, then this will resolve yes.

Note: If ONLY the "Iowa Electronic Markets" is taking bets under a "no action" letter, I will resolve this as "no," because the market is so small and limited, has a $500 limit, and requires users to physically mail in a form and a check. 

If Americans have to use VPNs to bet, this will resolve as "no."

Added clarification May 13: This is for real money betting. If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.” Added May 13 9pm: USD contests/prizes will still resolve to "no." Unless trading on Manifold becomes effectively the same as trading on a stock exchange (which is how PredictIt, for example, is) with predictable and directly-proportionate payouts that can be easily converted to USD, this market will resolve to "no."